An integrated pasture biomass and beef cattle liveweight predictive model under weather forecast uncertainty: An application to Northern Australia
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Beef production drives a significant proportion of Australia's agricultural economy, representing AUD11 billion in value annually. The profitability cattle farms across seasons varies greatly and is particularly influenced by weather associated uncertainty through pasture growth. Furthermore, producers must be careful managing stocking rates to avoid overgrazing which has environmental economic impact. Predictive modelling liveweight can help better manage this difficult balancing act. In paper, we integrate model for growth weight gain formulate predictions volume biomass. Monte‐Carlo simulation was used understand the impact inputs relating weather. Through such an approach, distribution possible outcomes beef formed inspected determine, example expected risk overgrazing. methodology demonstrated validated application case study data sourced from Australian producers. Results demonstrate that it obtain reasonable highlight importance considering uncertainty. accuracy proposed models been examined calculating statistical parameters MSE, MAE R 2 . This approach provide insight into given long‐term rainfall outlook. use predictive simulations will lead better‐informed planning rates, with benefits productivity sustainable utilisation pasture.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Food and Energy Security
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2048-3694']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.453